Short Term Energy Outlook - November 2016 Highlights | Download the Full PDF Report Here.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.8 million b/d in 2016 and 8.7 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in 2017 is more than 0.1 million b/d higher than in last month’s STEO
EIA expects Brent crude oil prices will average close to $48/ barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017. Forecast Brent prices average $43/b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to
average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The values of futures and options contracts indicate significant uncertainty in the price outlook, with NYMEX contract values for February 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 3 suggesting that a range from $35/b to $66/b encompasses the market expectation of WTI prices in February 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
October increasing by 3 cents/gallon (gal) from September to an average of $2.25/gal.
With the switch to less-expensive winter gasoline blends and the typical seasonal
decline in gasoline consumption, EIA expects gasoline prices to fall to an average of
$1.97/gal in January. Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.13/gal in 2016 and
$2.27/gal in 2017.
• Global oil inventory builds are forecast to average 0.8 million b/d in 2016 and 0.5 million
b/d in 2017.
Natural gas marketed production is forecast to average 77.3 billion cubic feet per day
(Bcf/d) in 2016, a 1.4 Bcf/d decline from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual
decline since 2005. EIA expects production to start rising in November as a result of
increases in drilling activity and infrastructure build-out that connects natural gas
production to demand centers. In 2017, forecast natural gas production increases by an
average of 2.9 Bcf/d from the 2016 level.